Lately, some sites and in the media can find articles and statements by Leonid Papyrin, which calls itself an international expert and is trying to impose their conclusions about the water problems of Central Asia. Particularly, it addresses vital issues for each of Tajiks - the problem of Lake Sarez and Rogun. As a geophysicist and worked several years in Tajikistan geologoupravlenii head of the Party, he spent several months conducting research at Lake Sarez. But his geophysical surveys in 2004 were rejected by the International Commission of Experts of the World Bank. His article, "Water problems of Central Asia", which appeared on the website "Central Asia" was, unfortunately, without critical commentary is reprinted in our central government newspaper "Narodnaya Gazeta» (№ 45-46 dated 9 and 16 November 2011). The paper consists of numerous indications of the author, how to build one or another of the reservoir and dam, many copied pages from a draft prepared by the "Tashkentgidroproekt" and passed off as their own conclusions. J1. Papyrin very dwells on the construction and safety issues Rogun. Not understanding the essence of the issue, not being an expert on hydropower, makes numerous erroneous conclusions. We decided not to hear and not to discuss this article. And to our readers are not mistaken in his innumerable inferences, the present paper, which is based on the opinions of leading Tajik scholars, X. S. Negmatullaeva, an expert on seismology and seismic construction and Sirodzheva B., a prominent electrical engineer, behind which the construction of the Nurek hydroelectric dam elevation. Also takes into account the view known political figure, an expert on energy, a member of the Committee of the Parliament of the Republic of Tajikistan on energy, industry, construction and communications, a member of the Tajik energy Association of Shodi Shabdolov. Without going into details of erroneous inferences L.Papyrin, consider it appropriate to provide readers with information that correspond to the truth based on the findings of the brain center - the Moscow Institute "Hydro project", which currently carries out maintenance of the proceedings of Rogun.

Our nation has been for many years with interest the controversy surrounding the development of Rogun. Each member of our society, every citizen interested in the question and everyone is waiting for a positive decision. A question has arisen this is not today and not yesterday, but many decades ago, when the greatest scientists of the Soviet Union on the instructions of the Government of the USSR participated in the Pamir-Tajik Complex Expedition in the early 30s.

The famous Soviet engineer N.A. Karaulov in 1932, considering the hydropower resources of Tajikistan, the Republic has shown great opportunities for power generation. I think readers will be interesting to present an excerpt from an article by N.A. Karaulov, published in 1932

"... installation, scheduled for rivers in Tajikistan, give the total power that is distributed as follows: the Panj River system - 26%, the system Vakhsh River - 53%, Kafirnigan - 3%, Karatag - 3%, Zarafshan - 16%. The total amount of energy generation given up all of these plants is 22 billion kilowatt/hours."

This fantastic technological advance- hydropower construction work, that time has long passed in Tajikistan. The country now produces annually more than 16 billion kilowatt / hours. And according to B. Sirodzhev, only the river Vakhsh technically can generate 45 billion kw / hours of electricity per year. Vakhsh River basin with a catchment area of 39 thousand 400 square kilometers located in the highest part of Tajikistan, in the foothills of the Pamir-Alai mountain system.

Through the work of N.A. Karaulov from early 30's Vakhsh River became a major focus of attention of scientists, researchers and engineers, hydropower, which led to the construction of the cascade of hydropower plants on the Vakhsh River. Currently, seven hydroelectric power plants have been successfully operated with a total installed capacity of 4670 MW. They provide the issuance of 93% of electricity of the country. Nearly three-quarters of the electricity produces the most hydroelectric power station Nurek, with the highest dam in the 300 M, which produces electricity per year - 11, 2 MAWP. kW / h. Design of the station began in the 50s, the building - in 1961. The operation of the station adopted in 1972, the last nine unit commissioned in 1979. The area of the reservoir 98 km 2, volume - 10 km 3, length - about 70 km. As a former chief of "Tadzhikglavenergo" B. Sirodzhev in response to journalists shows: "During the construction of the Nurek hydroelectric power station was the most stringent quality control. There were special units that monitor the quality of construction works and commissioning of equipment and other works. Not allowed to even minor deviations from the design decisions. With the acceptance of each phase of contracting organizations have their work as a customer and project organization. And only then, received payment for work performed. Thus, excluded are any irregularities in the construction process. Such a high dam was built as a rock fill that has improved its stability and reliability. During its existence, that is 37 years old dam "set" of about three meters, which means it has stabilized, and filtering the water through the dam is lower than the design in half - 37-67 l/sec, instead of the design of 80 l/sec. That is why our scientists have advocated it for the rockfill dam from local materials. All these years the Nurek hydroelectric power station caused no concern. You only need to carefully monitor its correct operation. Installed seismic sensors is heightened seismic activity during the filling of the reservoir water. However, the tremors were weak and shaking are constants only tightens the dam without causing serious accidents.

Attack of the Uzbek ecologists and opuses of Soviet Writers

The current large-scale attack on our neighbors, environmentalists Rogun reminds me of the accidental appearance in the newspaper "Pravda" in 1962, a number of major writers, led by Marietta Shahinian against the construction of High Dam at the Nurek hydroelectric power station on the rock-fill basis. Was printed in response to well-known scientists from world-renowned academics M.V.Keldysh, A.N. Nesmeyanov, A.M. Sadowski, A.P. Alexandrov and others, who asked journalists and writers do not interfere in a purely scientific and engineering projects. This article was published on the front page of the newspaper "Pravda".

After reading a number of statements of our opponents that in 100 years in the Rogun, with 20 earthquakes of 9 points, we turned to the well-known seismologist, Academician S. Kh Negmatullaev asking for help on seismic condition of the construction area of Nurek and Rogun. Scientist, presented a table of all earthquakes that have occurred on the territory of Tajikistan for the period from 1895 to 2010 and the strongest (M> 6,1-9,0) deep earthquakes in the period from 1906 to 2010. A thorough review of the data showed that in the construction of these high-altitude dams have never been recorded earthquakes with an intensity of more than 6 points on the scale MSK. During this period there were directly on the territory of Tajikistan 30 earthquakes and 38 earthquakes in the Hindu Kush-Pmiro area outside Tajikistan. All figures are in different directories, which are available to our adversaries and are available to all interested people. B. Sirodzhev claims "accident, which occurred in August 17, 2009 at the power plant Sayano-Shushen in Russia, recalled the need for a more critical approach to the safety of existing and constructed hydraulic works." Discussion on this topic was a lot and they continue to this day. In fact, the giant Soviet hydropower - the Nurek hydroelectric power station, working 37 years without an accident. But this is no indication that this will continue indefinitely. Of course, there is a need to convene a competent expert group to identify pockets of deformed the station. Necessary to complete the station by qualified personnel and to attract competent repair work, proven specialized organizations so that we do not happen that happened in Russia. Indeed, one of the causes of the crash sounded exactly where the shortcomings in the operation and maintenance of the technical control." It should be emphasized that the Nurek hydroelectric power station was not the last in the cascade of hydropower stations on the Vakhsh River. The next was to be built Rogun, which extended to the life of the Nurek hydroelectric power station. The fact that the Nurek reservoir is gradually silting due to deposits, which are applied with water. Rogun reservoir takes the protection of the siltation of the reservoir Nurek hydroelectric power station. There is another problem for the storage of large volumes of water with a high dam - the so-called "dead volume", that is, the amount of water that eventually must be replaced siltation.

"The dead volume" is usually at least half of the total volume of the reservoir. For example, in the full content of Nurek reservoir of about 10.5 billion cubic meters of water to the "dead volume" of less than 6 billion cubic meters, or about 60%. Silting of the reservoir Nurek hydroelectric station and the existence of "dead volume" of water begins to seriously affect the production of electricity, especially during the winter months. All of these issues put before the Government issues the resumption of Rogun. Rogun was renewed in 2000. At present the task in the coming years to commission the first phase, consisting of two hydroelectric plants. To do this, there are all prerequisites. Thus, almost two units are mounted on the stock plant. Turbine equipment has the expertise of specialists "Turboatom" Russia and found suitable for the installation and operation. Certainly, in the course of construction and other issues arise. Further construction will require, as a rule, support the design institute. And our hydro in this matter denied our Chief designer in Tashkent. Government of the Republic had to appeal to the Moscow Institute "Hydroproject", the former head office in Tashkent "Hydroproject." One of the items, according to which work from Moscow, is: "Hydroproject" shall have the right to correct technical solutions for the construction of waterworks, if their further implementation of the required level of reliability, as well as in the case of unjustified optimize to harmonize the customer. " Thus, the question of limitation of the project. At present there is ability to quickly recover seismological monitoring based on advanced technologies. A regional network of seven broadband digital seismic stations with satellite communication company "Nanometrik." Established geophysical service AN RT. Preparatory work is underway to create a local area network based on modern digital seismic stations to monitor the territory of the Rogun hydroelectric. It should be noted that observations of the slight shift engine room never stopped and positively noted the fact that over the past fifteen years, with deviations were within the specified project.

Now the construction of Rogun Tajikistan has become the most urgent and pressing task, and preparing for the overlap of the Vakhsh River is necessary pace. Rogun is part of the Vakhsh cascade. As its upper stage, it is a hydroelectric dam type with high (335 m) rock-fill dam. The design capacity of hydropower -3,600 MW, the average annual output - 13.1 mlrd.kVt / h. The building must be installed hydropower six radial - axial hydraulic units with a capacity of 600 MW. Dam will form a major Rogun reservoir with a total volume 13.3 CMH and useful volume of 8.6 CMH. The reservoir will be used in both energy and for irrigation purposes to irrigate arid land area of 300 hectares. Construction of the hydropower plant is planned in several stages. Power of the first stage should be 400 MW with average annual output 5 mlrd.kVt / h. The cost of completion of construction is estimated at $ 2.2 billion in the first phase - a $ 590 million

Currently, hydropower is adjusted by the Russian Institute "Hydro project ". Opponents have criticized the project because of the location in the zone of high seismic activity, landslides and debris flow processes, as well as the availability under the base of the dam Ionahshskiy normal fault filled with rock salt. The designers say on dam safety, in particular the fact that its design earthquake-resistant. And to protect the deposits of rock salt from erosion scheduled special events.

In 1974, the USSR State was approved by the Rogun project, developed by the CAO "Hydroproject" in Tashkent. Soviet hydraulic engineer found a safe solution to all these shortcomings. Provided for the sinking of 63 kilometers of tunnels. To combat the salt forms of the project envisaged the use of special technology provides a reliable level of security, i.e. to compensate for the pressure of the water reservoir, the reservoir will be fed with brine. To build a solid dam, which is not afraid of powerful earthquakes have decided to make the dam with a complex structure of loam, gravel and stones. Preparatory period of construction of power plants was initiated in 1976. In September 1976, Rogun arrived first builders. Transformers and turbines began to make in Kharkov, hydro – in Sverdlovsk. In total the project involved more than 300 enterprises. For builders of the city was built Rogun - multi-storey houses with all infrastructure. December 27, 1987 was held on the overlap of the Vakhsh River and the erection of the dam. By 1993, the height of the upper bridge construction has reached 40 meters, by that time had passed 21 kilometers of tunnels, performed major work on the development of computer facilities (70%) and transformer (80%) rooms. After the collapse of the Soviet Union was suspended construction of HPP. May 8, 1993 the upper building was washed away jumper powerful flood-flow tunnels and engine room were partially flooded. In 2004 an agreement was signed between the Government of Tajikistan and the company "Rusal" on the completion of hydroelectric power plants. The funds Rusal was prepared feasibility of the project. A number of works were led on site hydroelectric power plants. However, the parties failed to agree on some fundamental features of the project, in particular, the height of the dam, as well as its type ("Rusal" offered a version of the concrete dam height 285 m) and in September 2007, Tajikistan has officially terminated the agreement with the "Aluminum". The overlap of the Vakhsh River has been scheduled for December 2009 but was postponed. Start the first stage consisting of two units with total capacity of 400 MW to be implemented in late 2012.

In December 2010, was completed in the first building the tunnel station. In 2010, between Tajikistan and the World Bank signed an agreement on an international project expertise station in February 2011 by the contractor for the examination were selected Swiss company Poyry Energy LTD and the French firm Coyne & Bellier.

This is a brief history of Rogun. Now comes the final stage of examination and soon will be a question of timing overlap Vakhsh and the erection of the first phase of the dam and the establishment of the first two units.

Myths about the dangers of Rogun

According to many experts and specialists of Uzbekistan Rogun hydro can lead to serious divisions in the Central Asian region regarding the use of waste water of transboundary rivers. They believe that much of the water, which should fall into the lower reaches of the Amu-Darya, will remain in Rogun reservoir.

Some authors have suggested various alternatives instead of Rogun. One option, which pops up and thoroughly discussed - is the construction of a cascade of hydropower plants on the river Bartang flowing out of Lake Sarez. Lake formed as a result of natural disaster, when the river was blocked Usoi in 1911.Currently, the volume of water in the lake 17 billion CMH, depth 500 m (deepest point) and the length of about 70 km. Usoy Dam, the lake was formed, almost twice the planned Rogun dam. And the volume of Lake Sarez and a half times longer than expected Rogun.

Experts are also very concerned about the issue that the construction will be cast Rogun all the resources of Tajikistan, including financial, resulting in a solution to the problem of Lake Sarez postponed indefinitely, perhaps for decades. And during this time period may occur breakthrough Usoi Dam. Thus, we are pushing hard to refuse Rogun. B. Sirozhdev in his current article, "Rogun as guarantor" (Asia-Plus in October 12, 2011 № 77,) in this regard is objectively expresses the following opinion: "... no need to dramatize the issue around the filling of the reservoir. We will need 15-16 years to gain the full storage capacity, implementing a set of only in wet years and affluent. In this case, power station and the republic will operate normally and will not be damaged farmland downstream of the Amu-Darya. " And then the author makes the following remarkable conclusion: "Only Rogun reservoir can fully regulate the Vakhsh. With adjustable water volume 8.600 million cubic meters. m it together with the Nurek able to prevent any natural disasters in the region. We can confidently state that acts as a guarantor Rogun power generation over a large cascade of Vakhsh hydropower and irrigation system operation of land located in the lower basin of the Amu-Darya. " We do not understand the reasoning of individual experts who have one goal - to stop the construction of Rogun, resulting in Tajikistan would be energetically dependent on its neighbors, will not develop industry and the population would be in poverty and complete dependence on the work of hundreds of thousands of migrant workers in other countries. These experts are trying hard to prove to us, arguing about the necessity and feasibility of the priority attention to the problem of Lake Sarez, rather than the construction of Rogun. It's true, that the reasoning of some these experts there is a logic, but it can take us away from the main task of the Government of Tajikistan - to achieve our people's welfare, food programs, a sharp increase in GDP and debt reduction in our country to foreign countries and the rapidly increasing industrial potential .

Here is an excerpt of the arguments offered by these experts:

"... It should be noted that the Rogun project is fully commercial. Sarez the same project if it is implemented, will no longer have the status of human, social, since its main aim is to reduce the risk of the Lake Sarez and exclude the possibility of environmental and humanitarian disaster in the region. Energy as part of this project - it's only addition to more effective use of the lake. As a consequence, Sarez project can attract investment from around the world, from all humanitarian organizations, including the IMF, UN, etc. Thus, the possible redirection of funds Rogun project, and sharing financial resources, already proposed by the various funds to address the problem of Lake Sarez. " And further: ".. . Parallel development has not yet developed regions of Tajikistan to the possible establishment later in this region the mining industry and the development of ski tourism, or "Sarez project" may attract more labor in Tajikistan because of the need to develop infrastructure in undeveloped areas of Tajikistan, "etc. . In taking this project on Lake Sarez energy crisis in Tajikistan may exist for decades and can lead to disastrous results. Rogun - a direct path to success. "The myth that Rogun threatens the environment and the Aral Sea, which some authors have spread from Uzbekistan, today none of those who have the slightest idea of hydroelectric power, do not believe" - leader of the Communist Party of Tajikistan Shodi Shabdolov. According to him, the differences that emerged in the region around the construction of Rogun, clearly politicized and are in fact a struggle for possession of a leading position in the energy market in Central Asia including Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India and even Russia and China.

Concerning the problem of Aral, S. Shabdolov said that it arose through no fault of Tajikistan. "Water resources of the region intended for irrigation in the lower reaches, has been used very inefficiently, in some cases, the losses reach unacceptable values, and the main user of water mismanagement in Uzbekistan and the region is this axiom known to all those who at least by hearsay familiar with the problem of the Aral Sea drying" - says the leader of the CPT.

According to S. Shabdolova, Rogun will benefit not only to Tajikistan but also to other countries in the region, as in the next 50 years the world will face a severe shortage of oil and gas, as well as drinking water. "Pseudo-experts do not take into account that Afghanistan is now almost does not use its share of water withdrawals from rivers Panj and Amu-Darya River, but the day will come when to irrigate their endless expanses

"... It should be noted that the Rogun project is fully commercial. Sarez the same project if it is implemented, will no longer have the status of human, social, since its main aim is to reduce the risk of the Lake Sarez and exclude the possibility of environmental and humanitarian disaster in the region. Energy as part of this project - it's only addition to more effective use of the lake. As a consequence, Sarez project can attract investment from around the world, from all humanitarian organizations, including the IMF, UN, etc. Thus, the possible redirection of funds Rogun project, and sharing financial resources, already proposed by the various funds to address the problem of Lake Sarez. " And further: ".. . Parallel development has not yet developed regions of Tajikistan to the possible establishment later in this region the mining industry and the development of ski tourism, or "Sarez project" may attract more labor in Tajikistan because of the need to develop infrastructure in undeveloped areas of Tajikistan, "etc. . In taking this project on Lake Sarez energy crisis in Tajikistan may exist for decades and can lead to disastrous results. Rogun - a direct path to success. "The myth that Rogun threatens the environment and the Aral Sea, which some authors have spread from Uzbekistan, today none of those who have the slightest idea of hydroelectric power, do not believe" - leader of the Communist Party of Tajikistan Shodi Shabdolov. According to him, the differences that emerged in the region around the construction of Rogun, clearly politicized and are in fact a struggle for possession of a leading position in the energy market in Central Asia including Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India and even Russia and China. Concerning the problem of Aral, S. Shabdolov said that it arose through no fault of Tajikistan. "Water resources of the region intended for irrigation in the lower reaches, has been used very inefficiently, in some cases, the losses reach unacceptable values, and the main user of water mismanagement in Uzbekistan and the region is this axiom known to all those who at least by hearsay familiar with the problem of the Aral Sea drying" - says the leader of the CPT.

According to S. Shabdolova, Rogun will benefit not only to Tajikistan but also to other countries in the region, as in the next 50 years the world will face a severe shortage of oil and gas, as well as drinking water. "Pseudo-experts do not take into account that Afghanistan is now almost does not use its share of water withdrawals from rivers Panj and Amu-Darya River, but the day will come when to irrigate their endless expanses. When full, the reservoir water can be used to irrigate an additional 300 thousand hectares of arid land in the lower reaches of the Amu-Darya basin; Rogun reservoir will reduce to minimum risk of water shortage for the lower reaches of the Amu-Darya, especially in drought years;

Rogun reservoir will extend the life of the Nurek hydroelectric station, almost completely reducing the process of silting up of its reservoir.

Thus, Rogun is the most important object of the cascade of hydropower plants on the Vakhsh River, and there is no alternative to withdrawal from Tajikistan, a severe energy crisis, moreover, will facilitate the creation of new irrigated crops harvested in the lower reaches. With regard to Sarez project, I am totally confident that in the near future with the accumulation of sufficient funds to bring the lake to safety condition of roads in this mountainous region, the construction of settlements for housing construction and engineering staff, an appropriate infrastructure, we can seriously begin to address these issues. To date, the lake created by operating the assistance of international organizations, led by the World Bank's unique system of monitoring and early warning systems established to ensure timely evacuation in the event of an alarm situation. System provides early warning and neighboring countries

I am convinced that in dealing with this enormous problem should involve all states located in the basin of the river Panj and Amu-Darya, i.e., our next-door neighbors.

Dzhonon Ikrami, Professor

Internet site of the Asia-Plus in January 2012